What will happen during a new Maunder Minimum?

According to the latest IPCC report, AR5, the influence of the sun on our climate since pre-industrial times, in terms of radiative forcing, is very small compared to the effect of greenhouse gases.

According to some more skeptical scientists such a small solar influence is counterintuitive. The Little Ice Age, the period roughly from 1350 [...]

Climate Sensitivity and Transient Climate Response

Climate sensitivity is at the heart of the scientific debate on anthropogenic climate change. In the fifth assessment report of the IPCC (AR5) the different lines of evidence were combined to conclude that the Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) is likely in the range from 1.5°C to 4.5°C. Unfortunately this range has not narrowed since the [...]

The (missing) tropical hot spot

The (missing) tropical hot spot is one of the long-standing controversies in climate science. Climate models show amplified warming high in the tropical troposphere due to greenhouse forcing. However data from satellites and weather balloons don’t show much amplification. What to make of this? Have the models been ‘falsified’ as critics say or are the [...]

Are regional models ready for prime time?

The third Climate Dialogue is about the value of models on the regional scale. Do model simulations at this level have skill? Can regional models add value to the global models?

We have three excellent participants joining this discussion: Bart van den Hurk of KNMI in The Netherlands who is actively involved in the KNMI [...]

Long-term persistence and trend significance

Update 28 April 2014: Climate Dialogue summaries now online The summary of the second Climate Dialogue discussion on long-term persistence is now online (see below). We have made two versions: a short and an extended version. We apologize for the delay in publishing the summary.

Both versions can also be downloaded as pdf documents: Summary [...]

Melting of the Arctic sea ice

Update 25 February 2013: Climate Dialogue summary now online The summary of the first Climate Dialogue discussion on the melting of the Arctic sea ice is now online (see below). We have made two versions: a short and an extended version. The discussion between the experts is now officially closed. The public comments remain open. [...]